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By Finkenstadt B. F.

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Extra info for A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics estimation and inference for measles o

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The latter repays careful reading for those who want to pursue the logic of the subject in more depth without too much mathematical detail. Books on applications in the social sciences include Marascuilo and McSweeney (1977), Leach (1979) and more recently Siegel and Castellan (1988), an update of a book written by Siegel some 30 years earlier. Noether (1991) uses a nonparametric approach to introduce basic general statistical concepts. Although dealing ©2001 CRC Press LLC basically with rank correlation methods, Kendall and Gibbons (1990) give an insight into the relationship between many nonparametric methods.

Formulate the hypotheses leading to an appropriate one-tail test. If ©2001 CRC Press LLC the post-treatment ranking of the patients receiving the new drug is 1, 2, 4, 6 assess the strength of the evidence against the relevant H0. 6 An archaeologist numbers some articles 1 to 11 in the order he discovers them. He selects at random a sample of 3 of them. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the items he selects is less than or equal to 8? ) If the archaeologist believed that items belonging to the more recent of two civilizations were more likely to be found earlier in his dig and of his 11 items 3 are identified as belonging to that more recent civilization (but the remaining 8 come from an earlier civilization) does a rank sum of 8 for the 3 matching the more recent civilization provide reasonable support for his theory?

The sample mean varies between samples so we need a measure of the precision of this estimate. A confidence interval is one such measure. One way to specify a 100(1 – α) per cent confidence interval for a parameter θ is to define it as the set of all values θ for which, if any such θ were specified in H0, for the given data the test would lead to a P > α. Thus, if a confidence interval includes the value of a parameter that is specified in H0 there is no strong evidence against H0, whereas a value specified in H0 that lies well outside that confidence interval indicates strong evidence against H0.

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